Tens of Thousands of Tennesseans Expected to Switch to Plug-in Vehicles within Next Five Years
The Republican Senator of Tennessee, Lamar Alexander, said this week that he expects tens of thousands of Tennesseans to switch to plug-in electric vehicles or plug-in hybrid vehicles at least partially powered by electricity within the next five years.
The TN Senators met with representatives of auto manufacturing companies, battery producers, and Chairman of the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA), Bill Sansom, who offered a 20 percent discount of off-peak electricity (i.e. outside of noon to 6 PM) that would encourage adoption of plug-in vehicles with batteries that could be charged cost effectively during off-peak evening hours.
According to Energy Central News, TVA carries an excess generating capacity of roughly 7,000 megawatts in the evening, equivalent to the generating capacity of roughly six or seven nuclear power plants.
The top selling hybrid car in the U.S., Toyota Prius, is also the most fuel efficient car sold in the U.S. with an average fuel economy of 48 miles per gallon. GM sells several hybrid vehicles as well.
In contrast to non-plug-in hybrid vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) need to operate in a long-range charge depleting mode, which requires deep discharge of the battery’s energy over time. A123 Systems develops affordable PHEV cells, based on nanophosphate lithium-ion battery technology, with the following innovations:
- Higher energy density for long-range (100+miles), charge-depleting, all electric PHEV operation;
- Retention of high power for charge-sustaining PHEV operation;
- Thousands of deep discharge cycles for successful, long-term PHEV operation.
The following graph illustrates how the A123 PHEV cells maintain their energy capacity over thousands of deep discharge cycles.
How Much Oil in ANWR and U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve?
Arctic National Wildlife Refuge
USGS optimistically estimates 10.3 billion barrels (10,300 million barrels) of recoverable oil in ANWR, with projected ANWR peak production rates of approximately 1.3 million barrels per day (1.3 mmbpd). Assuming peak production from ANWR, this 10,300 mmb supply would last us about 22 years (10,300 mmb ANWR oil / 1.3 mmbpd = about 7,923 days = 22 years).
1.3 mmbpd peak production from ANWR would offset a fraction of the 12 mmbpd net U.S. imports (total U.S. demand is 21 mmbpd). But when would we see this oil from ANWR and how much would it affect gasoline and diesel prices at the pump?
7 to 12 years would be needed for leasing, permitting, construction, and so forth before oil from ANWR could hit the market. If Congress voted today to allow drilling in ANWR, we would probably see oil by 2017, meeting roughly 6% of total U.S. demand (1.3 mmbpd / 21 mmbpd = 6%). If U.S. demand increases by 20% in 10 years, ANWR oil would meet roughly 5% of demand.
U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve
The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, an emergency petroleum store maintained by the DOE, peaked at around 700 million total barrels in 2005 and 2007. At its maximum drawdown rate, the Reserve could offset roughly 4.4 mmbpd net oil imports (though U.S. net imports = 12 mmbpd) in the event of an embargo or other emergency. At its maximum drawdown rate, the Reserve would last about 159 days (700 mmb / 4.4 mmbpd = 159 days).
Drawdown capability of U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve:
- Maximum drawdown capability: 4.4 million barrels per day
- Time for oil to enter U.S. market: 13 days from Presidential decision
- Full drawdown: The President can order a full drawdown of the Reserve to counter a “severe energy supply interruption” or national energy supply shortage as determined by the President.
Corn and Switchgrass Ethanol, and Used Cooking Oil Biodiesel
Corn Ethanol
To grow staple food crops like corn in the U.S. to convert to fuel is not a viable solution for the automotive industry because, well, people really like to eat corn. Besides what would happen to corn ethanol if the U.S. Congress eliminated the 54-cent tariff on each gallon of imported ethanol form places like Brazil? Brazilian sugarcane requires about half as much land and far less fossil-fuel input than U.S. corn to produce the same quantity of ethanol fuel. Having no shortage of sunshine, rain, and arable land, Brazil would certainly have a leg up in the ethanol market.
Switchgrass Ethanol
Is American switchgrass (a native prairie grass) a viable, alternative feedstock for ethanol fuel? Well, unlike corn, people don’t like to eat popped switchgrass, creamed switchgrass, switchgrass muffins, etc. so food shortage is not an issue for swtichgrass ethanol makers. Wild birds, pheasant, quail and turkey enjoy switchgrass as a habitat, but that isn’t a big problem. The major problem is feasibility. Engineers and entrepreneurs must find a commercially viable way to convert cellulosic biomass into ethanol. There is some progress with a demonstration-scale biorefinery that opened in 2008 in Jennings, LA. However this plant makes ethanol from a cellulosic feedstock called bagasse that is left over from processing sugarcane to make sugar.
Used Cooking Oil Biodiesel
While corn ethanol is heavily subsidized in the U.S., biodiesel derived from used cooking oil is a feasible alternative (a drop in the bucket) to conventional diesel fuel due to the abundance of free used cooking oil available from restaurants. Used cooking oil would only be able supply less than 1% of the 65 billion gallons of diesel consumed annually in the U.S. One small business in California, called Blue Sky, collects used cooking oil from restaurants free of charge, refines it and then sells it to diesel fleets (e.g. school bus fleets) which run on 20% biodiesel and 80% conventional diesel. Blends of 20% biodiesel with 80% petroleum diesel (B20) can generally be used in unmodified diesel engines.
Lieberman-Warner’s “America’s Climate Security Act” re-introduced in 2008
Eventually the U.S. will join the majority of industrialized nations in addressing climate change and pass some kind of legislation (probably by 2011 I would imagine with either McCain or Obama in the White House) to start regulating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the U.S. I would prefer an adjustable fuel tax or pollutant-component tax on the front-end of supply (e.g. 2% or 3% tax in 2010) to simplify the regulation. But even with a complicated cap-and-trade system, we should begin to see some reflection of the true cost of fossil fuels (i.e. including the perceived environmental costs) in the prices we pay for petroleum fuels, electricity and natural gas.
Here is an NWF overview of the Lieberman-Warner bill.
Starting within five years, the bill would reduce global warming pollution from major emitters such as power plants and oil refineries by about two percent each year from current levels. Emissions from these sources will be reduced by 15% below current levels between 2012 and 2020. Over the longer term, the bill will reduce global warming pollution from major emitters by one-third (33%) below current levels between 2012 and 2030, and by 70% below current levels between 2012 and 2050. The bill regulates power plants, oil companies and big industrial emitters, accounting for about three-quarters of total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. According to analysis by the Natural Resources Defense Council, due to additional measures in the legislation to strengthen building codes and appliance standards, the bill could reduce overall U.S. greenhouse gas emissions between 16-22% below current levels by the year 2020.
Prices that depend on energy will probably go up slightly as a consequence of any GHG regulation, but the Lieberman-Warner bill, also known as “America’s Climate Security Act”, would only require a gradual 1% to 2% annual reduction in GHG emissions. Plus the bill should accelerate demand for energy efficiency and stimulate other sectors of the economy, so who knows what the net effect will be on the overall economy.
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NYMEX: Light, Sweet Crude Oil (CL)
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NYMEX: Natural Gas (NG)
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NYMEX: Heating Oil (HO)
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EIA: Retail Prices
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Bloomberg: Wind Energy Index
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MAC: Global Solar Energy Index