How Much Oil in ANWR and U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve?
Arctic National Wildlife Refuge
USGS optimistically estimates 10.3 billion barrels (10,300 million barrels) of recoverable oil in ANWR, with projected ANWR peak production rates of approximately 1.3 million barrels per day (1.3 mmbpd). Assuming peak production from ANWR, this 10,300 mmb supply would last us about 22 years (10,300 mmb ANWR oil / 1.3 mmbpd = about 7,923 days = 22 years).
1.3 mmbpd peak production from ANWR would offset a fraction of the 12 mmbpd net U.S. imports (total U.S. demand is 21 mmbpd). But when would we see this oil from ANWR and how much would it affect gasoline and diesel prices at the pump?
7 to 12 years would be needed for leasing, permitting, construction, and so forth before oil from ANWR could hit the market. If Congress voted today to allow drilling in ANWR, we would probably see oil by 2017, meeting roughly 6% of total U.S. demand (1.3 mmbpd / 21 mmbpd = 6%). If U.S. demand increases by 20% in 10 years, ANWR oil would meet roughly 5% of demand.
U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve
The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, an emergency petroleum store maintained by the DOE, peaked at around 700 million total barrels in 2005 and 2007. At its maximum drawdown rate, the Reserve could offset roughly 4.4 mmbpd net oil imports (though U.S. net imports = 12 mmbpd) in the event of an embargo or other emergency. At its maximum drawdown rate, the Reserve would last about 159 days (700 mmb / 4.4 mmbpd = 159 days).
Drawdown capability of U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve:
- Maximum drawdown capability: 4.4 million barrels per day
- Time for oil to enter U.S. market: 13 days from Presidential decision
- Full drawdown: The President can order a full drawdown of the Reserve to counter a “severe energy supply interruption” or national energy supply shortage as determined by the President.
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EIA: Retail Prices
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